The Energy Models for Pakistan
Energy Models for Pakistan
Abstract
It is of great significance to forecast energy related information in advance for the sake of reducing or avoiding consequent losses while predicting future economic scenario in the country. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) is an integrated modelling tool that can be used to track energy consumption, production and resource extraction in all sectors of an economy, which has been developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute. LEAP model was used for realistic Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) for Pakistan. Many researchers have used LEAP model for this purpose. We have proved that forecast values produced by this model are not reasonable. Forecast values reveal 10% to 24% relative errors when compared with recent observed values. It is therefore a need to develop a few models which can produce reliable forecasts for near and far future in order to help local energy planners. In this study we developed an exponential model and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. ARIMA is a statistical analysis model that uses time series data to either better understand the data set or to predict future trends in the process under study. Models were used to forecast total electricity consumption in Pakistan from 2019 to 2030. A comparison of forecast values from published paper was done. Our predicted values revealed less than 10% relative errors when compared with three observed values.
